Sales forecast template
Most sales forecast templates multiply open pipeline by stage probability and call the result a forecast. That number is useful as a cross-check and useless as a commitment, because nobody is accountable for it. This template starts from what reps and managers call, shows the floor and ceiling around it, and uses the weighted number only to flag where the call and the pipeline disagree.
Download it
What you get
- A rep roll-up with closed won, Commit, Best case, rep call, and manager call
- Floor and ceiling calculations so the range around the call is explicit
- A stage-weighted cross-check using your own historical stage-to-close rates
- A variance section that forces an explanation when the call and the weighted number diverge
- Worked examples where every total adds up, so you can check your formulas
Who it's for
- RevOps analysts who build the weekly forecast roll-up
- VPs of Sales who submit the number to finance and the board
- Frontline managers calling their team's quarter
What's inside
6 sections, each listed with its own size. The first is previewed below; the remaining 5 come with the download, with blank rows ready to fill in.
| Section | Size | Previewed |
|---|---|---|
| Rep roll-up | 8 columns, 4 worked example rows | Below |
| Floor, ceiling, and call | 3 columns, 4 worked example rows | In the download |
| Stage-weighted cross-check | 5 columns, 5 worked example rows | In the download |
| Reading the cross-check | Guidance notes | In the download |
| Weekly forecast submission | 6 fields to complete | In the download |
| Before you submit the number | 6-point checklist | In the download |
Preview of section 1
Rep roll-up
All open amounts are deals with a close date in this quarter. Rep call and manager call are submitted separately.
| Rep | Quarter quota | Closed won | Open Commit | Open Best case | Rep call | Manager call | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rivera | 300,000 | 120,000 | 90,000 | 60,000 | 210,000 | 200,000 | Manager discounts one Commit deal pending security |
| J. Chen | 300,000 | 180,000 | 60,000 | 80,000 | 240,000 | 260,000 | Manager pulls in a 20,000 Best case renewal |
How to use it
1. Collect the rep call and the manager call separately
The rep submits a number; the manager submits their own number for that rep. Keeping both shows you whose judgment is better over time, which is what the forecast accuracy tracker then measures.
2. Compute floor and ceiling every week
Floor = Closed won + open Commit. Ceiling = Floor + open Best case. A call outside that range needs an explanation, because it means the rep is forecasting deals not in Commit or discounting deals that are.
3. Use your own stage-to-close rates for the cross-check
Pull four quarters of history and compute how often deals in each stage at week 4 closed that quarter. Default CRM probabilities are guesses; your own history is evidence.
4. Investigate gaps, do not average them
If the weighted number is well above the call, either reps are sandbagging or the pipeline is stale. If it is well below, the call depends on a few big deals. Either way, find out which deals explain the gap rather than splitting the difference.
Frequently asked questions
How do you create a sales forecast?
Collect a call from each rep and manager, calculate the floor (closed won plus Commit) and ceiling (floor plus Best case), and cross-check the call against a stage-weighted number based on your own historical close rates. Investigate any large gap before submitting.
What is the difference between a weighted forecast and a committed forecast?
A weighted forecast multiplies every open deal by a probability. A committed forecast is a number someone is accountable for, based on judgment about specific deals. Use the committed number as the forecast and the weighted one as a check.
What stage probabilities should I use?
Your own. Pull four quarters of history and measure how often deals in each stage at a given week of the quarter closed that quarter. Default CRM probabilities are rarely calibrated to your sales motion.
How often should a sales forecast be updated?
Weekly, on a fixed day, before the forecast call. Update it more often in the last two weeks of the quarter if deal movement is heavy.