Renewal forecast template
Renewal forecasts usually assume everything renews at 100% until a customer says otherwise, then the churn lands in the last two weeks of the quarter. A useful renewal forecast starts at the account, flags risk early from signals the CS team can observe, and keeps churn, contraction, and expansion as separate lines so a big upsell cannot hide a string of losses.
- Category:
- Pipeline & Forecasting
- Formats:
- PDF + CSV + web view
- Sections:
- 6
- Updated:
What you get
- A cohort roll-up by renewal month with gross and net retention forecast
- An account-level sheet with risk flags and expected renewed ARR that ties to the cohort total
- Written risk flag definitions (green, amber, red) based on observable signals
- Formulas for gross and net retention in plain arithmetic
- A weekly review checklist for CS and RevOps
Who it's for
- CS operations and customer success leaders who own renewals
- RevOps leads who roll renewals into the company forecast
- Finance partners planning against retention
What's inside
- 1
Cohort roll-up
9 columns, 4 worked example rows
- 2
Formulas
3 columns, 4 worked example rows
- 3
Account-level forecast (February cohort)
9 columns, 5 worked example rows
- 4
Risk flag definitions
3 columns, 3 worked example rows
- 5
Reading the example
Guidance notes
- 6
Weekly renewal review
8-point checklist
Preview of section 1
Cohort roll-up
Worked example for a quarter. Each cohort is the sum of its account rows.
| Renewal cohort | Renewing ARR | Forecast churn | Forecast contraction | Forecast expansion | Gross renewed ARR | Gross retention | Net renewed ARR | Net retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 500,000 | 40,000 | 10,000 | 60,000 | 450,000 | 90.0% | 510,000 | 102.0% |
| February | 300,000 | 30,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 255,000 | 85.0% | 270,000 | 90.0% |
The preview shows part of section 1. The full template has all 6 sections (5 not previewed here), with blank rows ready to fill in. Download the full template
How to use it
- 1
Forecast every account renewing in the next two quarters
Start at the account level. Pull every contract with a renewal date in the next six months and its current ARR. The cohort totals are sums of these rows, never a separate top-down estimate.
- 2
Split churn, contraction, and expansion
For each account, forecast full churn, downsell, and upsell as three numbers. Netting them into one figure per account is how a 60,000 expansion hides two 30,000 churns.
- 3
Set risk flags from signals, not sentiment
Use the flag definitions below. A customer who is "happy on the last call" but whose usage dropped by half and whose sponsor left is red. CSMs can argue a flag up, but only with evidence.
- 4
Report gross retention before net retention
Gross retention tells you how much of the base you kept. Net retention adds expansion on top. Lead with gross in every review so expansion cannot mask a churn problem.
Frequently asked questions
What is a renewal forecast?
A projection of how much of the ARR up for renewal in a period will renew, broken into churn, contraction, and expansion, usually rolled up by renewal month or quarter.
How do you calculate gross and net retention for a renewal cohort?
Gross retention = (Renewing ARR - Churn - Contraction) / Renewing ARR. Net retention = (Renewing ARR - Churn - Contraction + Expansion) / Renewing ARR. On 300,000 renewing with 30,000 churn, 15,000 contraction, and 15,000 expansion, gross is 85% and net is 90%.
What are common churn risk signals?
Falling usage, loss of the executive sponsor or champion, open support escalations, pricing objections, late renewal conversations, and the customer mentioning alternatives. Validate which ones preceded churn in your own history.
Who owns the renewal forecast?
Usually the customer success or account management leader, with RevOps owning the model and roll-up. Where AEs own renewals, it belongs in the main sales forecast but should still be reported separately from new business.
Related templates
All sales ops templatesNet revenue retention calculator
RevOps Metrics & Reporting
A net revenue retention calculator for cohort NRR and GRR by segment, with expansion, contraction, and churn broken out separately. Free CSV.
Sales to CS handoff checklist
Enablement & Process
A sales to customer success handoff checklist: what sales must document before a customer goes to onboarding, and when CS sends it back. Free PDF and CSV.
Sales forecast template
Pipeline & Forecasting
A sales forecast template that rolls rep calls into a team number with floor, ceiling, manager calls, and a stage-weighted cross-check. Free PDF and CSV.